A preliminary assessment of the US campaign in Yemen

Yemen

Yamanat

Hossam Radman

The US president has designed his military response to the Yemeni scene to be more assertive than the “defensive containment/Biden” policy, and less impulsive than the “preventative wars/Bush Jr.” era.

Trump has adopted a method of “offensive deterrence” that employs hard (attacks) and soft (sanctions) power in a proactive and targeted manner. Force the opponent to change their behavior, without the need to fight a zero-sum battle with the goal of ending their existence.

The aim of the US attack is to undermine the capabilities of the Houthis (whether as an armed organization, a ruling authority or a political movement). The outcome of the airstrikes in recent days has revealed a series of operational objectives, which can be summarized in three diagrams:

1- Weaken the military infrastructure through a series of precise raids spread over a large geographical area. Weapons stores, command and control sites, training and assembly headquarters, military communications system, military logistics and military manufacturing centers were targeted.

2- Threaten the civilian infrastructure used to finance their political authority and their war effort. Washington launched warning messages targeting the Sanaa oil company and a power plant in Saada. Furthermore, US talk about using a number of UN factories, warehouses and the port of Hodeidah for military purposes – which is indeed true – could be a prelude to broader action.

3- Threat to liquidate the leaders; This was demonstrated by specific strikes targeting the Al-Jarraf neighborhood in Sanaa and a number of leaders’ houses in Saada. These operations serve as a warning message about the seriousness with which Trump has taken the policy of beheading.

Washington is expected to strive in the coming period to achieve its goals at an increasing pace (both quantitatively and qualitatively). Based on the nature of Houthi counter-behavior.

Ultimately, Trump aspires to push for a deal with Iran and impose a deterrent on the Houthis. If this is not possible, it aspires to emulate Hezbollah’s model by relying on air power and intelligence, a model that is theoretically feasible, but which presents many practical difficulties in Yemen.

These difficulties will raise a worrying question: what if Washington exhausts its objectives (due to lack of information, wild nature or flexibility of the militias), without deterring Houthi behavior and without softening Iran’s position?

The conflict in Yemen will then have truly reached its critical point. Most likely, Trump will not be enthusiastic about continuing the operations for a long time unless they prove feasible to achieve the goals. He will also not tend to politically contain the Houthis (like Saudi Arabia) and will appear as a weak president, easy to defeat and blackmail.

If the US president finds himself on the brink of an exhausting spiral in Yemen, it could push him to take two steps forward instead of one step back.
More to the point, Trump will pursue his policy of maximum pressure with greater ferocity. Either by targeting Iranian geopolitical assets in Yemen and throughout the region.

Or by being willing to support a ground maneuver in Yemen without direct U.S. intervention and providing armed support and air cover to military forces affiliated with the Yemeni Presidential Command Council, notably in the Hodeidah region and on the west coast.

Activation of the first stage depends on the extent to which Trump’s relations with Iran deteriorate, while activation of the second stage depends on the extent to which coordination between Trump and Saudi Arabia and the Emirates develops.

It appears the Houthi group is avoiding pushing Trump quickly toward harsher options. Thus, until now, it has simply responded by targeting American military assets in the Red Sea, in addition to its operations deep inside Israel. These operations have no strategic impact; in fact, they often lack tactical feasibility.

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Yemen